Chip Redmond, Meteorologist and Kansas Mesonet Manager
Just wait a few minutes and the Kansas weather will change…is a common phrase I hear as a meteorologist in the Great Plains. Sometimes it is true, but in times of a drought, those changes usually aren’t good changes. When we have moisture, we tend to under appreciate the timeliness and benefit it has, especially in Kansas summer, where we are always two weeks away from a flash drought.
So far, in spring through early summer 2025, precipitation has been timely and fairly widespread. While flooding has been relatively isolated to central and Flint Hills regions of the state, these have been flash events that helped fill ponds, lakes and rivers. Additionally, areas such as the southwest continue to run at/above average with drought completely erased. This has been good for cattle and summer crops, but not as ideal for winter wheat harvest. We have also avoided the early season heat stress of which is often a concern for cattle at the start of the summer, when they aren’t acclimated yet (you can find the seven-day animal comfort forecast here: https://mesonet.k-state.edu/agriculture/animal/). Other areas, especially along/north of I-70, rainfall has been more scarce with 120-day deficits up to 7” (Figure 1). This has resulted in moderate D2 drought persisting with even some recent expansion.
This is a much better drought scenario than I honestly thought Kansas would be at by late June. It seems that the influx of spring moisture in Oklahoma/Texas, combined with an active east Pacific tropical season have provided rainfall opportunities. In a way, positive feedback from pre-existing moisture in the southern Plains has modified our air mass, limiting the drying potential of recent heat/warmth episodes. Additionally, this allows for more effective transport northward of the Pacific tropical moisture. This is over-ruling the persistent negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO, fancy talk for warm north Pacific waters with cooler waters along the west coast of Canada/US) that has recently restrengthened. PDO persists for long periods of time, hence decade in its name. This has been the reason we routinely fight drought conditions in the Central Plains each year for the last decade. It allows for northwest flow, a typically dry pattern, to prevail across the center of the US. Lastly, we continue to see neutral conditions in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We did have La Nina this past spring and thus, were expecting some lingering dryness across the Plains. However, ENSO has shifted back to neutral conditions (neither warm nor cold in the east Pacific along the Equator) and this has limited impact to our summers.
Here comes the waiting for that five-minute change part… while we have staved off drought expansion so far in summer 2025, will it change quickly? Kansas would greatly benefit from the PDO becoming positive, favoring more west-to-east flow that allows for wetter prolonged patterns. Unfortunately, this isn’t likely to change in the short term. As a result, the negative PDO typically favors much warmer than normal temperatures in Kansas and northward, along with drier than normal conditions in the back-half of summer (Figure 2). So far, the tropical moisture has overridden this pattern and prevented such results. It has also increased our soil moisture allowing for continued cooler afternoons (but warmer overnights) and positive feedback for continuing thunderstorm activity. It is important to note that the east Pacific tropical activity thus far has been above normal and is expected to be at/above normal for the duration of the season. However, it seems likely there will be a period of quieter conditions in the near future as subsidence, sinking air, dominates activity into July.
In the short term, there is one more push of tropical air from the east Pacific into the United States expected. Unfortunately, this push is going to be steered west of the Plains into Arizona/New Mexico. This is good news for producers wanting to harvest wheat. Unfortunately, it will also likely lead to quieter and more isolated rainfall chances into mid-July. A more monsoonal-like pattern will develop with that moisture trapped in the southwest. Only pop-up storms and occasional storm complexes developing off the Rocky Mountains, traversing and eventually weakening with eastward extent into the Plains expected. This is usually a pattern that favors western Kansas more than central/east. As we move later into July, it appears that even that moisture will begin to wane and conditions, especially across northern Kansas, will begin to dry back out (Figure 3).
Precipitation deficits can develop rapidly this time of year. Even a week without moisture, similar to what the southeast has observed this week, can result in rapid soil moisture depletion (Figure 4). This could potentially be amplified by warmer July conditions favored in western Kansas (Figure 3). Where the most drying occurs in the month of July will determine where negative drought signals develop/persist into August and September. Right now, with residual moisture, the Climate Prediction Center kept the entire state in “near normal” precipitation with quite a bit of uncertainty of how the three month July-September average will sort out (Figure 5). However, if the dry areas expand in July, this can rapidly change – and I expect that as -PDO begins to dominate more late summer.
Here comes the change… The forecast for the past few months has been very challenging with month end flips in the weather models, mostly due to the increased tropical activity. However, it does appear that we may be undergoing the pattern change towards overall drier and warmer into mid-July. I still believe there will be moisture chances around, however, the widespread coverage is going to come to an end with storms/showers more limited in nature. Some of the best crops are grown in drought after all, it just needs timely moisture to fall when the crops need it the most. Additionally, most pastures (outside of areas of northern Kansas) are already projected for above normal growth even if below average precipitation were to occur (Figure 6).
The bottom line… Recent precipitation and sub-surface soil moisture increases have hopefully set the stage for a successful summer crop and cattle season, even if drought does increase late summer, which seems very likely. Timely moisture will be more critical than at/above/below normal precipitation averages for the summer. Regardless, we are Kansans and prepared for everything from flooding to drought. We just have to grab the reins and wait another five minutes for it to change!